The World Bank projects that Vietnam and the Philippines will grow strongest among large developing economies in East Asia over the coming years.
In the Philippines, growth is projected at 6.4 per cent in 2016, with an accelerated implementation of public-private partnership projects and strong domestic demand.
“The country benefits from diversified export markets and low global commodity prices,” the World Bank said in its June 2016 Global Economic Prospects report released this week.
The bank further forecast Philippine growth 6.2 per cent in 2017 and 2018.
In case of Vietnam, the World Bank expects GDP growth of 6.2 per cent in 2016 and then an expansion to 6.3 per cent in 2017 and 2018. This trend stems from rising foreign direct investment, growing exports and solid labour markets, according to the bank.
Compared to other ASEAN-5 countries, growth in Vietnam and Philippines is the highest. The World Bank’s growth forecast for Indonesia declined to 5.1 per cent from 5.3 per cent in January and for Malaysia to 4.4 per cent from 4.5 per cent. Growth in Thailand is expected to accelerate gradually, but remain below 3 per cent on average in 2016 to 2018 as high household debt holds back consumption and export growth remains lukewarm.
Strongest absolute growth is forecast for ASEAN’s least developed nations Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia, but from a significantly lower level.
Elsewhere in Asia, China is forecast to grow at 6.7 per cent after 6.9 per cent last year, and India’s robust economic expansion is expected to hold steady at 7.6 per cent.
The global growth forecast for 2016 has been downgraded to 2.4 per cent from 2.9 per cent pace projected in January. The move is due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade and diminishing capital flows.
